Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 2.277850 2.406825 2.546769 2.711397 2.901821 3.117872 3.385702
2025-09-28 2.107955 2.265669 2.443860 2.663700 2.933163 3.261003 3.705009
2025-10-05 2.042890 2.226986 2.442225 2.719215 3.077695 3.545580 4.244351
2025-10-12 2.006077 2.213961 2.464516 2.799804 3.257401 3.900324 4.976294
2025-10-19 1.936562 2.154017 2.421291 2.788384 3.308249 4.079640 5.496878
2025-10-26 1.884513 2.111041 2.394517 2.793519 3.379311 4.298723 6.176158
2025-11-02 1.814763 2.041176 2.327462 2.736275 3.349710 4.347323 6.538394
2025-11-09 1.767217 1.996886 2.290758 2.717493 3.374650 4.491282 7.195229
2025-11-16 1.726090 1.958605 2.259370 2.702974 3.403205 4.646006 7.995348
2025-11-23 1.687071 1.921145 2.226746 2.683605 3.420713 4.782520 8.876968
2025-11-30 1.664619 1.904289 2.220987 2.702937 3.503874 5.070057 10.696664
2025-12-07 1.610367 1.843138 2.151118 2.620716 3.403691 4.944732 10.607050
2025-12-14 1.580258 1.814379 2.126738 2.609010 3.430501 5.118905 12.431847
2025-12-21 1.541960 1.773265 2.083192 2.564830 3.394544 5.140528 13.518470
2025-12-28 1.535488 1.774800 2.099830 2.615570 3.537498 5.641645 21.772010
2026-01-04 1.535782 1.785345 2.129573 2.689208 3.735459 6.394753 148.987323
2026-01-11 1.512394 1.762258 2.109088 2.678681 3.764231 6.664319 NaN
2026-01-18 1.494491 1.746188 2.098192 2.683325 3.825014 7.077593 NaN
2026-01-25 1.462386 1.709356 2.055124 2.630909 3.758273 7.001855 NaN
2026-02-01 1.441040 1.687132 2.033203 2.613680 3.766668 7.225309 NaN
2026-02-08 1.421749 1.667297 2.014171 2.600355 3.782281 7.492667 NaN
2026-02-15 1.402226 1.646647 1.993229 2.582576 3.786044 7.718449 NaN
2026-02-22 1.392545 1.639649 1.992631 2.600312 3.873381 8.406438 NaN